Increased nervousness in the crypto-investor community

18, Mar - NEWS

Concerns

Obviously, because markets are very nervous waiting for the US unemployment data, especially after Powell's speech, the reaction has intensified.

A small domino effect is in question, with the announcement that Silvergate, a crypto-asset company, will cease operations. Following the announcement, SVB Financial Group, the parent company of start-up lender Silicon Valley Bank, said it had a higher-than-expected cash flow from customers and lower deposits.

As a result, the title lost 70% of its value in 24 hours and pulled all major US bank stocks down in its plunge, with declines of between 4% and 5%, causing a sharp correction in stock markets.

Unemployment figures

Obviously, it doesn't help those markets are very nervous, and the proof of this nervousness is the likelihood of a 0.50% Fed rate hike at its next meeting, which has risen from 80 to 50%. Certainly, based on the sentiment of "she can't do that to us when there are concerns in the crypto-asset market"!

Nervousness has already been heightened with the release of weekly jobless claims, which have risen quite significantly by 21,000, the biggest increase since October, bringing the figure to 211,000.

We will have to wait to try and see more clearly. The US economy was estimated to have added 205,000 jobs after posting 517,000 in January. A figure that remains firm, although it marks a slight decline, even if the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.4%.

But average hourly earnings could rise by 0.3% month-on-month, meaning the annual rate would rise from 4.4% to 4.7%, which would be evidence that tightness in the labor market persists.

It was his last session...

For Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, and during which, unsurprisingly, rates remained unchanged, as did yield control policy.

Although the decision was expected, it did cause a slight decline in the yen, but above all a steep fall in long rates, because some had nevertheless bet on a change of this yield control policy during the last meeting.

Even if the withdrawal of this policy is only a matter of time, it will take some time before the new governor does so. But it seems obvious that Ueda will leave rates unchanged, given the weakness of the Japanese economy as evidenced by the latest economic indicators.

Growth in Belgium

According to the BNB, Belgian growth in the first quarter could be 0.4% after 0.1% in the fourth quarter.

While the BNB believes that business investment should remain stable, based on the observation that GDP growth in the fourth quarter was mainly driven by private consumption, "everything leads us to believe that this will accelerate further in the first quarter of 2023, especially given the marked improvement in confidence indicators. In addition, inflationary pressures have eased somewhat due to lower energy prices and nominal incomes for a large number of households have risen strongly due to delayed indexation mechanisms."

And it is true that consumer confidence, after hitting an all-time low, has experienced a fairly marked pullback over the past two months, largely due to falling energy prices.