This past December 2024, the NFT Pudgy Penguins project launched its own token, PENGU, to support the growth of the ecosystem and bring new usage scenarios. After a few days of falling and listing on a number of cryptocurrency exchanges, it seems that the asset is evolving in an interesting configuration. Could we be facing a new memcoin coming into vogue in the Solana ecosystem?
Given the limited history of the asset, it doesn't make sense to analyse using 1D or 1W time units. Instead, we will analyse directly on the H4 scale, which will allow us to identify the first technical zones that the asset has been able to build during these few weeks of fluctuations. We can see that PENGU has formed a technical reversal in the 0.035/0.036 dollars area as it bounced back and forth. The asset has held above this technical zone since the beginning of the year. However, PENGU seems to be on a razor's edge, having found itself in an area that is now in confluence with the MA 100.
After ATH registered at the 0.047 dollars level, a decline followed. With PENGU back below the 13/25 EMA confluence and below support at 0.04 dollars, the current area is the last hope for a bounce for PENGU (in the short term). If it fails to fend off sellers and begin a recovery to the upside, the asset will return below the low reached late last year, below 0.03 dollars.
Successful launch of a new memcoin
The launch of PENGU generated millions of dollars for Solana's NFT community. However, it involved a much wider community, including regular Solana and Ethereum users. Today, the asset ranks 56th in market capitalisation, ahead of BONK and constantly competing for a place in the sun with TIA, a testament to the successful launch strategy developed by the Pudgy Penguins team. With a market capitalisation of around 570 million dollars, it is important to keep an eye on the project's ability to demonstrate innovation by providing real-world scenarios of token usage that will encourage people who have received ether to keep the token in their wallet.
PENGU price against the dollar at M30
Specifically, the reversal identified on H4 is becoming increasingly important when using VP, allowing us to identify technical zones where trading volumes were highest. At M30, PENGU, returns below this technical zone and to its POC. If the uptrend fails to resume soon and it continues to move below the 13/25 EMA confluence, PENGU will head towards interim support around the 0.033 dollars level.
Beyond this threshold, potential downward acceleration should be feared. The two consecutive zones corresponding to the LVN VP show a strong lack of volume and hence lack of support. Despite these factors, PENGU is still in an interesting configuration. Given the many projects planned for 2025 by the network that is a leader in memcoin development, there is every chance that the momentum could be extended. We advise you to keep an eye on the price momentum around the current reversal. A return of buyers over the weekend will allow PENGU to recover and follow the path of its current ATH.
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